Burnley vs Derby Prediction
Carabao Cup · Tue, Aug 26 - 21:45
Updated Sat, Jul 25, 2026 00:00 EAT
Carabao Cup
Lost
Derby
Burnley vs Derby key facts
Burnley have won 0 of their last 5 recorded matches, while Derby have won 2 of their last 5. The available home/away sample gives Burnley a 10% home win trend and Derby a 40% away win trend. Burnley average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded in the recent sample, compared with Derby at 1.30 scored and 1.20 conceded. Burnley 1 wins, Derby 0 wins, 0 draws in last 1 meetings. The table context has Burnley in position 19, 22 points, 38 matches played, while no comparable table row was available for Derby. Player-form data gives Burnley an average top-player rating of 7.08 with 17 latest goal involvements, compared with Derby at 7.02 rating and 14 goal involvements. The model converts those form, venue, goals, head-to-head, standings and player-form signals into 1X2 probabilities of 29% home, 32% draw and 38% away, making Derby to Win the preferred tip at 38% confidence.
Derby to Win
Data-driven betting predictions
Each market is produced from stored fixture probabilities, recent form, goals profile and head-to-head data. Result settlement is based on 90 minutes only.
Why this prediction?
Reason for tip
Burnley have won 0 of their last 5 recorded matches, while Derby have won 2 of their last 5. The available home/away sample gives Burnley a 10% home win trend and Derby a 40% away win trend. Burnley average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded in the recent sample, compared with Derby at 1.30 scored and 1.20 conceded. Burnley 1 wins, Derby 0 wins, 0 draws in last 1 meetings. The table context has Burnley in position 19, 22 points, 38 matches played, while no comparable table row was available for Derby. Player-form data gives Burnley an average top-player rating of 7.08 with 17 latest goal involvements, compared with Derby at 7.02 rating and 14 goal involvements. The model converts those form, venue, goals, head-to-head, standings and player-form signals into 1X2 probabilities of 29% home, 32% draw and 38% away, making Derby to Win the preferred tip at 38% confidence.
Burnley 1 wins, Derby 0 wins, 0 draws in last 1 meetings.Lost
Actual result: 2-1 · Outcome: Home Win
Burnley vs Derby questions
What is the Burnley vs Derby prediction?
The Kisure Sports model favours Derby to Win with a predicted score of 0-3 and 38% confidence.
What are the win probabilities?
Burnley are rated at 29%, the draw at 32%, and Derby at 38%.
What data is used for this forecast?
The forecast uses saved recent form, home and away performance, goals scored and conceded, head-to-head results, standings context and available player-form data. Predictions are informational and do not guarantee an outcome.