Derby vs Swansea Prediction

Prediction summary

Derby vs Swansea key facts

Primary tipDerby to Win

Predicted score2-1

Kick-offSat, Feb 14 - 18:00

Confidence43%

Retrospective forecast archive This forecast cannot be verified as published before kick-off, so it is excluded from search indexes and prediction sitemaps.

Derby have won 2 of their last 5 recorded matches, while Swansea have won 3 of their last 5. The available home/away sample gives Derby a 60% home win trend and Swansea a 40% away win trend. Derby average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the recent sample, compared with Swansea at 1.50 scored and 1.60 conceded. Derby 2 wins, Swansea 0 wins, 0 draws in last 2 meetings. The table context has Derby in position 8, 69 points, 46 matches played, while Swansea in position 11, 64 points, 46 matches played. Player-form data is available for Derby, with an average top-player rating of 7.02 and 14 latest goal involvements. The model converts those form, venue, goals, head-to-head, standings and player-form signals into 1X2 probabilities of 43% home, 23% draw and 34% away, making Derby to Win the preferred tip at 43% confidence.

Open Derby vs Swansea Match Centre Browse all football predictions

Match forecast

Derby to Win

Won

Predicted score 2-1 Confidence: Low · 43% ★★☆☆☆

Derby Win43%

Draw23%

Swansea Win34%

Recommended markets

Data-driven betting predictions

Each market is produced from stored fixture probabilities, recent form, goals profile and head-to-head data. Result settlement is based on 90 minutes only.

Match Winner Derby to Win 43% model probability

Double Chance 12 77% model probability

Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82% model probability

Both Teams To Score Yes 60% model probability

Correct Score 2-1 Model-derived tip

First Team To Score No clear edge Model-derived tip

Clean Sheet No strong clean sheet edge Model-derived tip

Over 2.5 Goals Yes 82% probability Actual: 2 goals · Lost

Both Teams To Score Yes 60% probability Actual: No · Lost

Correct Score 2-1 Exact score prediction Actual: 2-0 · Lost

Model Confidence Low 43% Final score: 2-0

Form analysis

Why this prediction?

Derby formL W L W L6 points from last five

Swansea formW D W L W10 points from last five

Home/Away strength60% / 40%Venue trend in available data

Goals profile1.30 - 1.50Average goals scored

Table position8 / 1169 pts vs 64 pts

Player form7.02 / -Average top-player rating

Reason for tip

Derby have won 2 of their last 5 recorded matches, while Swansea have won 3 of their last 5. The available home/away sample gives Derby a 60% home win trend and Swansea a 40% away win trend. Derby average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the recent sample, compared with Swansea at 1.50 scored and 1.60 conceded. Derby 2 wins, Swansea 0 wins, 0 draws in last 2 meetings. The table context has Derby in position 8, 69 points, 46 matches played, while Swansea in position 11, 64 points, 46 matches played. Player-form data is available for Derby, with an average top-player rating of 7.02 and 14 latest goal involvements. The model converts those form, venue, goals, head-to-head, standings and player-form signals into 1X2 probabilities of 43% home, 23% draw and 34% away, making Derby to Win the preferred tip at 43% confidence.

Derby 2 wins, Swansea 0 wins, 0 draws in last 2 meetings.

Result check

Won

Actual result: 2-0 · Outcome: Home Win

Prediction guide

Derby vs Swansea questions

What is the Derby vs Swansea prediction?

The Kisure Sports model favours Derby to Win with a predicted score of 2-1 and 43% confidence.

What are the win probabilities?

Derby are rated at 43%, the draw at 23%, and Swansea at 34%.

What data is used for this forecast?

The forecast uses saved recent form, home and away performance, goals scored and conceded, head-to-head results, standings context and available player-form data. Predictions are informational and do not guarantee an outcome.