Southampton vs Derby Prediction
Championship · Sat, Apr 11 - 17:00
Updated Fri, Jul 24, 2026 00:00 EAT
Championship
Won
Derby
Southampton vs Derby key facts
Southampton have won 1 of their last 5 recorded matches, while Derby have won 2 of their last 5. The available home/away sample gives Southampton a 60% home win trend and Derby a 40% away win trend. Southampton average 2.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded in the recent sample, compared with Derby at 1.30 scored and 1.20 conceded. Southampton 1 wins, Derby 0 wins, 1 draws in last 2 meetings. The table context has Southampton in position 4, 80 points, 46 matches played, while Derby in position 8, 69 points, 46 matches played. Player-form data gives Southampton an average top-player rating of 6.79 with 15 latest goal involvements, compared with Derby at 7.02 rating and 14 goal involvements. The model converts those form, venue, goals, head-to-head, standings and player-form signals into 1X2 probabilities of 46% home, 23% draw and 31% away, making Southampton to Win the preferred tip at 46% confidence.
Southampton to Win
Data-driven betting predictions
Each market is produced from stored fixture probabilities, recent form, goals profile and head-to-head data. Result settlement is based on 90 minutes only.
Why this prediction?
Reason for tip
Southampton have won 1 of their last 5 recorded matches, while Derby have won 2 of their last 5. The available home/away sample gives Southampton a 60% home win trend and Derby a 40% away win trend. Southampton average 2.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded in the recent sample, compared with Derby at 1.30 scored and 1.20 conceded. Southampton 1 wins, Derby 0 wins, 1 draws in last 2 meetings. The table context has Southampton in position 4, 80 points, 46 matches played, while Derby in position 8, 69 points, 46 matches played. Player-form data gives Southampton an average top-player rating of 6.79 with 15 latest goal involvements, compared with Derby at 7.02 rating and 14 goal involvements. The model converts those form, venue, goals, head-to-head, standings and player-form signals into 1X2 probabilities of 46% home, 23% draw and 31% away, making Southampton to Win the preferred tip at 46% confidence.
Southampton 1 wins, Derby 0 wins, 1 draws in last 2 meetings.Won
Actual result: 2-1 · Outcome: Home Win
Southampton vs Derby questions
What is the Southampton vs Derby prediction?
The Kisure Sports model favours Southampton to Win with a predicted score of 2-1 and 46% confidence.
What are the win probabilities?
Southampton are rated at 46%, the draw at 23%, and Derby at 31%.
What data is used for this forecast?
The forecast uses saved recent form, home and away performance, goals scored and conceded, head-to-head results, standings context and available player-form data. Predictions are informational and do not guarantee an outcome.