Excelsior vs Ajax Prediction

Reason for tip

Excelsior have won 3 of their last 5 recorded matches, while Ajax have won 1 of their last 5. The available home/away sample gives Excelsior a 20% home win trend and Ajax a 40% away win trend. Excelsior average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded in the recent sample, compared with Ajax at 1.60 scored and 0.70 conceded. Excelsior 1 wins, Ajax 0 wins, 1 draws in last 2 meetings. The model converts those form, venue, goals and head-to-head signals into 1X2 probabilities of 43% home, 24% draw and 33% away, making Excelsior to Win the preferred tip at 43% confidence.