Bristol City vs Derby Prediction

Prediction summary

Bristol City vs Derby key facts

Primary tipDerby to Win

Predicted score0-3

Kick-offFri, Jan 30 - 23:00

Confidence39%

Retrospective forecast archive This forecast cannot be verified as published before kick-off, so it is excluded from search indexes and prediction sitemaps.

Bristol City have won 1 of their last 5 recorded matches, while Derby have won 2 of their last 5. The available home/away sample gives Bristol City a 30% home win trend and Derby a 40% away win trend. Bristol City average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the recent sample, compared with Derby at 1.30 scored and 1.20 conceded. Bristol City 0 wins, Derby 1 wins, 1 draws in last 2 meetings. The table context has Bristol City in position 12, 62 points, 46 matches played, while Derby in position 8, 69 points, 46 matches played. Player-form data is available for Bristol City, with an average top-player rating of 7.71 and 21 latest goal involvements. The model converts those form, venue, goals, head-to-head, standings and player-form signals into 1X2 probabilities of 33% home, 28% draw and 39% away, making Derby to Win the preferred tip at 39% confidence.

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Match forecast

Derby to Win

Won

Predicted score 0-3 Confidence: Low · 39% ★★☆☆☆

Bristol City Win33%

Draw28%

Derby Win39%

Recommended markets

Data-driven betting predictions

Each market is produced from stored fixture probabilities, recent form, goals profile and head-to-head data. Result settlement is based on 90 minutes only.

Match Winner Derby to Win 39% model probability

Double Chance 12 72% model probability

Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82% model probability

Both Teams To Score No 50% model probability

Correct Score 0-3 Model-derived tip

First Team To Score Derby Model-derived tip

Clean Sheet No strong clean sheet edge Model-derived tip

Over 2.5 Goals Yes 82% probability Actual: 5 goals · Won

Both Teams To Score No 50% probability Actual: No · Won

Correct Score 0-3 Exact score prediction Actual: 0-5 · Lost

Model Confidence Low 39% Final score: 0-5

Form analysis

Why this prediction?

Bristol City formL W L D L4 points from last five

Derby formL W L W L6 points from last five

Home/Away strength30% / 40%Venue trend in available data

Goals profile1.10 - 1.30Average goals scored

Table position12 / 862 pts vs 69 pts

Player form7.71 / -Average top-player rating

Reason for tip

Bristol City have won 1 of their last 5 recorded matches, while Derby have won 2 of their last 5. The available home/away sample gives Bristol City a 30% home win trend and Derby a 40% away win trend. Bristol City average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the recent sample, compared with Derby at 1.30 scored and 1.20 conceded. Bristol City 0 wins, Derby 1 wins, 1 draws in last 2 meetings. The table context has Bristol City in position 12, 62 points, 46 matches played, while Derby in position 8, 69 points, 46 matches played. Player-form data is available for Bristol City, with an average top-player rating of 7.71 and 21 latest goal involvements. The model converts those form, venue, goals, head-to-head, standings and player-form signals into 1X2 probabilities of 33% home, 28% draw and 39% away, making Derby to Win the preferred tip at 39% confidence.

Bristol City 0 wins, Derby 1 wins, 1 draws in last 2 meetings.

Result check

Won

Actual result: 0-5 · Outcome: Away Win

Prediction guide

Bristol City vs Derby questions

What is the Bristol City vs Derby prediction?

The Kisure Sports model favours Derby to Win with a predicted score of 0-3 and 39% confidence.

What are the win probabilities?

Bristol City are rated at 33%, the draw at 28%, and Derby at 39%.

What data is used for this forecast?

The forecast uses saved recent form, home and away performance, goals scored and conceded, head-to-head results, standings context and available player-form data. Predictions are informational and do not guarantee an outcome.