Southampton vs Derby Prediction

Prediction summary

Southampton vs Derby key facts

Primary tipSouthampton to Win

Predicted score2-1

Kick-offSat, Apr 11 - 17:00

Confidence57%

Retrospective forecast archive This forecast cannot be verified as published before kick-off, so it is excluded from search indexes and prediction sitemaps.

Southampton have won 1 of their last 5 recorded matches, while Derby have won 0 of their last 2. The available home/away sample gives Southampton a 60% home win trend and Derby a 4% away win trend. Southampton average 2.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded in the recent sample, compared with Derby at 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Southampton 1 wins, Derby 0 wins, 1 draws in last 2 meetings. The table context has Southampton in position 4, 80 points, 46 matches played, while Derby in position 8, 69 points, 46 matches played. Player-form data gives Southampton an average top-player rating of 6.79 with 15 latest goal involvements, compared with Derby at 7.02 rating and 14 goal involvements. The model converts those form, venue, goals, head-to-head, standings and player-form signals into 1X2 probabilities of 57% home, 25% draw and 18% away, making Southampton to Win the preferred tip at 57% confidence.

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Match forecast

Southampton to Win

Won

Predicted score 2-1 Confidence: Medium · 57% ★★★☆☆

Southampton Win57%

Draw25%

Derby Win18%

Recommended markets

Data-driven betting predictions

Each market is produced from stored fixture probabilities, recent form, goals profile and head-to-head data. Result settlement is based on 90 minutes only.

Match Winner Southampton to Win 57% model probability

Double Chance 1X 82% model probability

Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82% model probability

Both Teams To Score Yes 78% model probability

Correct Score 2-1 Model-derived tip

First Team To Score Southampton Model-derived tip

Clean Sheet Southampton clean sheet possible Model-derived tip

Over 2.5 Goals Yes 82% probability Actual: 3 goals · Won

Both Teams To Score Yes 78% probability Actual: Yes · Won

Correct Score 2-1 Exact score prediction Actual: 2-1 · Won

Model Confidence Medium 57% Final score: 2-1

Form analysis

Why this prediction?

Southampton formD D W D L6 points from last five

Derby formL D1 points from last five

Home/Away strength60% / 4%Venue trend in available data

Goals profile2.10 - 1.00Average goals scored

Table position4 / 880 pts vs 69 pts

Player form6.79 / 7.02Average top-player rating

Reason for tip

Southampton have won 1 of their last 5 recorded matches, while Derby have won 0 of their last 2. The available home/away sample gives Southampton a 60% home win trend and Derby a 4% away win trend. Southampton average 2.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded in the recent sample, compared with Derby at 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Southampton 1 wins, Derby 0 wins, 1 draws in last 2 meetings. The table context has Southampton in position 4, 80 points, 46 matches played, while Derby in position 8, 69 points, 46 matches played. Player-form data gives Southampton an average top-player rating of 6.79 with 15 latest goal involvements, compared with Derby at 7.02 rating and 14 goal involvements. The model converts those form, venue, goals, head-to-head, standings and player-form signals into 1X2 probabilities of 57% home, 25% draw and 18% away, making Southampton to Win the preferred tip at 57% confidence.

Southampton 1 wins, Derby 0 wins, 1 draws in last 2 meetings.

Result check

Won

Actual result: 2-1 · Outcome: Home Win

Prediction guide

Southampton vs Derby questions

What is the Southampton vs Derby prediction?

The Kisure Sports model favours Southampton to Win with a predicted score of 2-1 and 57% confidence.

What are the win probabilities?

Southampton are rated at 57%, the draw at 25%, and Derby at 18%.

What data is used for this forecast?

The forecast uses saved recent form, home and away performance, goals scored and conceded, head-to-head results, standings context and available player-form data. Predictions are informational and do not guarantee an outcome.